As May 1st occurred last week, the Market map model combined with the “Sell in May” component using the small cap value universe, has signaled a cash allocation. The model previously signaled an allocation to small cap value on 09/27/14 ( here: https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/market-map-update-09152014/). Previous instances of buy and hold returns during cash allocation periods are reflected in the chart below.
Further explanation on the Market Map model using the “Sell in May” component can be found here: https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/market-map-model-2-using-small-cap-value-weighted-portfolio/ https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit?usp=sharing
Probability of allocation to TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) on 7/1O/15 = 5O%