As the Market Map model’s current allocation is longer dated U.S. bonds ( TLT ), we again look ahead to the predefined allocation schedule and to the model’s components in preparing for the next tactical allocation action. On 09/29/14, component 4, “4th quarters characteristically showing statistically significant probability of profitability”, will come into play. The allocation will shift from TLT, to the SPY or QQQ etfs, with the QQQ achieving higher alpha historically.
Additionally, the model combined with the “Sell in May” component is also affected by this 4th quarter rule and allocates from cash to the small cap value universe ( as described here: https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/12/23/market-map-model-2-using-small-cap-value-weighted-portfolio/)
This table and graph show the previous instances and performances of component 4.
We examine the performance of the above table and graph and the historical performance table here: https://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2013/11/04/market-map-model-2-enhancing-returns-with-bonds/ for the purposeful reminder of staying with the model for a long term, multi year asset accumulation process through time diversification and compounding, and not for the purposes of developing pride and arrogance and the turning of quick profits.
The next predetermined asset allocation date will be: 01/16/2015