Our first article introduced the implementation of five components which, during fixed times in a given year, present us with a “map” of where to allocate capital between exchange traded funds based on 1) market indices (the SPDR Trust ETF (SPY), Vanguard Total market ETF (VTI), or Powershares QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ)SPY), 2) long treasury bonds (the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) or the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VUSTX)) or 3) “cash” (short term treasury equivalents/money market funds).
At the end of 2013, the initial requirements towards taking action in allocating assets from the equity ETFs to “cash” via component #1 (ie. consecutive years of “overperformance” vs. “baseline” ) were satisfied. Since then, we also needed further and final confirmation from component #2 ( Time series calculation conducted on performance of SP500 over specific months, categorized into risk profiles ( Favorable, Neutral, and High) applied towards upcoming year). On 01/17/2014, this requirement was satisfied with the final “risk profile” outcome generated from the combined effect of components 1,2,& 3 = Neutral. Hence, a Neutral risk profile reading equates with a shift in asset allocation from equity based index etf’s to a “cash” allocation ( short term treasury equivalents). An explanation of the four risk profiles used in the Market Map model are described here seekingalpha.com/article/1738582-market-map-model-1-risk-profiles.
Table 1 shows the performance of the neutral risk profile years encompassed in the past 90 years data set.
Table 2 = Market Map model performance using the S&P500 index over last 15 years of asset allocation periods through 01/17/2014.
Table 3 = Market Map model performance using the Nasdaq 100 index over last 15 years of asset allocation periods through 01/17/2014.
In conclusion, the Market Map model has indicated that an asset allocation change from an equity position to a cash position is warranted. The next time frame of note for a possible asset allocation shift will occur in the beginning of July.
In navigating the sea of financial opinion and emotion, we can find solace and confidence in 90 years of non-subjective, statistically significant data incorporated into a model that has produced consistent and repeatable outcomes.